Iowa caucuses: Sanders and Biden eye victory

Dan McAdam

BBC Radio 4 Today

In the Iowan city of Newton, a group of Democrat caucus-goers reel off all the presidential hopefuls they’ve seen up close.

“I saw Buttigieg, I saw Booker, I saw Biden, I saw Sanders, but I haven’t 100% made my mind up,” says Josina.

“When I saw Joe Biden yesterday, that really sealed my thinking,” says John, who’s lived in Newton for 20 years. “I like Buttigieg, I like Klobuchar, I like a lot of the other candidates. But to see them in person, see them up close, see how they react to questions can really help you sort out who you’re backing.”

There’s a reason all the Democratic hopefuls have stopped here. President Trump won this area, Jasper County, from the Democrats in 2016. Newton, a city of about 20,000 people, is a former manufacturing hub, and has suffered since the washing machine manufacturer Maytag, which was the heart of the town, closed operations.

Gezellig Bar, where we spoke to Democratic voters, sits on the campus of the former Maytag headquarters and is next door to where most of the candidates stopped to speak.

Those who haven’t made their mind up yet can expect to get a fair amount of attention in tonight’s vote. “If you’re not 100% committed to your candidate you will be approached by all of your neighbours trying to get you swayed to their candidate.

“It can be a little bit frenzied and crazy like everyone wants you to be their date to the prom,” says Josina.

Who? Former vice-president and veteran senator

Key issues: Rebuilding the middle class; investing in federal infrastructure; tuition-free public universities

One policy: Similar to the Green New Deal, Biden’s Clean Energy Revolution would make the US economy 100% clean energy based with net-zero emissions by 2050, as well as target polluters with fees and quotas

Read more, including analysis from the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher.

Helier Cheung

BBC News, Washington DC

It’s been a hectic couple of weeks for Bret Nilles, chair of the Linn County Democrats.

There are 51,000 registered Democrats in Linn County, and he’s responsible for organising caucuses in all 86 precincts. He’s likened it to “planning 86 wedding receptions when you don’t know how many people are going to show up”.

However, he thinks the caucuses are also important because they give voters a real stake in events.

Voters are “willing to come out on a winter night in February and stay there for two to three hours – that shows a level of engagement that I don’t think you see in many other areas,” he told the BBC.

Zhaoyin Feng

US correspondent, BBC Chinese

In every one of Andrew Yang’s rallies that I have been to, I have seen a large turnout of Asian-American voters, who generally tend to be less politically active. But Yang, one of the most recognisable Asian-American presidential candidates in history, has successfully mobilised this group.

Sixteen-year-old Katerina Li, a Chinese-Canadian living in Iowa, stared at Yang in starstruck awe during his last pre-caucus rally in Des Moines. She said she was impressed by Yang’s charisma and encouraged to see an Asian running for president. “Representation matters. I hope to see more diversity in American politics.”

The shared ethnicity is what initially drew many Asians into the “Yang Gang”, but most of them say that after they learned more about his platform, they became more convinced that Yang was their candidate.

Chinese-American
Yang Deng got hooked after watching Yang’s speech videos for hours. She
traveled from California to Iowa the weekend leading up to the caucuses to canvas for Yang. Though familiar with Yang’s signature policy, a universal
basic income of $1,000 a month for every American, Deng said her favourite
policy proposal was the “Democracy Dollars” – every American gets $100 a year
for political donation.

“This will
wash off the corporation dollars and the mega donors. The government will be on
people’s hands,” Deng told me.

According
to filings with Federal Election Commission, Yang has become the top recipient
of Asian-American donations among the Democratic presidential hopefuls.

On the
Chinese messaging app WeChat, more than a hundred Yang-supporting Chinese
Iowans are exchanging caucus-related information, including a photo of a
bespoke fortune cookie message – “Good fortune to you and to America. Vote for
Andrew Yang.”

They’ll be caucusing for Yang tonight, hoping the presidential
candidate who looks like them will surge.

There are 11 Democrats still standing (from 28 who have stood at one point or another), though realistically not all of them will do well tonight.

Here’s who is left:

• Bernie Sanders, Vermont senator
• Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts senator
• Joe Biden, former US vice-president
• Pete Buttigieg, former Indiana mayor
• Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota senator
• Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor
• Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii congresswoman

• Andrew Yang, tech entrepreneur
• Tom Steyer, billionaire investor
• Deval Patrick, former Massachusetts governor
• Michael Bennet, Colorado senator

We’ll bring you potted profiles of the candidates – as many as we can – over the course of the next few hours.

David Grossman

BBC Newsnight, Des Moines

Who doesn’t want to meet the next president of the United States? Obviously, there are plenty of unknowns, not least the fact that the current president is intent on staying in the Oval Office. But Iowa is where journalists can get close – really close – to the people who want to run America.

The state is mainly rural and sparsely populated so campaigning in Iowa means organising three or four small town hall style meetings every day. The key to winning is shaking hands and posing for photos. That means they are in range of my microphone. I pick the events in more isolated areas away from the state capital Des Moines. And then you have to know exactly where to lurk to grab a chat.

After next month the candidates will have Secret Service protection and will be campaigning at fewer, bigger events, so this reporter’s paradise doesn’t last long.

Generally, primaries are open to more voters – they’re held across the state, while caucuses are held in just a few places at a particular time, and are open only to party members. Caucuses used to be the most popular way of choosing candidates, but they’re much less common now.

In primaries (like the first, in New Hampshire next Tuesday) you vote in private – in caucuses, it’s often through a head-count.

Anthony Zurcher

BBC North America reporter, Iowa

At an Elizabeth Warren rally on Saturday in Iowa City, before the candidate appears on stage to speak, Nina Elkaldi takes the microphone and makes a promise to the crowd. The Iowa Caucus campaign season is almost over, and soon the state’s residents would be getting some peace and quiet.

“In just two days we will no longer be receiving 39 texts, 40 phone calls and eight mailers every single day,” the campaign volunteer, who is taking time off from college to serve as a caucus precinct captain, says.

The crowd laughs. They know.

Maeve Jackowski knows. She works at the nearby University of Iowa hospital and only recently decided to back Warren in the caucuses. She says she’s been inundated by messages from all the Democratic campaigns. She sometimes gets five different volunteers knocking on her door in one day.

“To be honest, some days you just kind of keep your blinds shut and you can’t do it,” she says. “Sometimes you’re, like, my dog is going crazy. I can’t have any more visitors.”

Both Jackowski and Elkaldi acknowledge that living in the state that starts the presidential nomination process is a burden sometimes – but they also say it’s a privilege they and their fellow Iowans take seriously.

“The caucus process itself is unique to Iowa obviously,” Elkaldi says. “And I think it’s actually really exciting. It’s democracy at work. Neighbours are talking to each other. Instead of going to that ballot box, you’re getting the chance to hear why people are supporting their candidate. I think it’s really special.”

Oddly, by the time you’re reading this, some of the Iowa caucuses have already taken place. Even more oddly, one of them was in Georgia (the country, not the state).

That’s because Iowans were allowed to hold “satellite caucuses” around the world this year. Eager Iowans unable to make it home held caucuses in Paris, France, Glasgow in Scotland, and in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.

Journalist Joshua Kucera is the man behind the caucus in the Caucuses (as an article he wrote in The Nation wittily called it). He found a grand total of two other Iowans in his adopted country, and all three voted in his apartment.

“Like most Iowans who have left, I’m nostalgic for home,” he wrote. “And one of the many things I love, even when it disenfranchises me, is our archaic voting system.”

If you’re interested, Bernie Sanders came out on top in Glasgow, and Elizabeth Warren in Paris. The Tbilisi result isn’t yet clear, not that it will make much difference…

This is my fifth Iowa caucus and the overwhelming sense I get this year is nervousness.

Sometimes you get excitement – 2008 – sometimes there’s anger – 2004 – but this time there’s just anxiety.

In the two days I’ve been here I’ve spoken to three candidates, and been to two rallies. Everyone I spoke to knows it won’t be easy unseating Mr Trump. They hope these caucuses will give clarity and unity to a divided field.

Iowa’s caucuses begin at 19:00 local time (20:00 EST) and should last about an hour. There will be caucuses in 1,678 locations (including gyms, libraries, and even private homes) across Iowa’s 99 counties.

Anyone can vote, as long as they’re a registered voter. The process is a bit confusing, but it works like this:

• you stand in a certain part of the room to show which candidate you support
• if, at the end of that vote, any candidate gets less than 15%, they then become invalid
• the people who voted for them get to pick someone else (or not vote at all)
• only at this point will we know how many delegates each candidate gets

All the results will be made public. It’s entirely feasible that the person who does best in the first round doesn’t win the second. This is because the candidate in second place in the first round may scoop up more of the “other” votes.

Hopefully that makes sense…

Or maybe it’s like the Oscars? The analogies are not that far off, as our Marianna Brady explains…

The US primary process is how each party’s presidential hopefuls battle for the presidential nomination. There are primary elections, similar to a general election (where you vote in private), and there are a handful of caucuses.

Caucuses are party-run events, where people gather at venues across the state (like barns or churches instead of polling stations) to vote on their preferred candidate – sometimes by head count or show of hands.

As a result, caucuses tend to really suit candidates who are good at rousing their supporters to get out of bed. People like Bernie Sanders, for example.

Caucuses used to be far more popular back in the day, but this year, Democrats are holding only four in US states – in Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming and Iowa.

The more votes a candidate gets in a caucus, the more delegates they are awarded. Each of those delegates then votes for them as the party’s candidate in the summer convention.

Anthony Zurcher

BBC North America reporter

Iowa doesn’t always determine the ultimate Democratic nominee, but when it’s a wide open field like this – without a clear home-state favourite – it can be a pretty accurate predictor.

Hillary Clinton narrowly won in 2016. Barack Obama in 2008, John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000 all had more comfortable victories. Every single one went on to become their party’s standard-bearer.

What’s more, an Iowa win followed by one the following week in New Hampshire is a seldom-accomplished feat. Only two non-incumbent Democrats, Kerry and Gore, have done so since the modern primary system began.

If polls are any indication, Bernie Sanders has the potential to pull off such a double play. A Bernie boom scenario starts in Iowa.

• Read more from Anthony here

Nine months from today, the US will vote on their next president.

It’s all but certain that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. But the race to decide who will run against him starts today.

The Iowa caucuses take place from 19:00 local time (that’s in a little under three hours), and while victory there will not guarantee anyone the Democratic nomination, it can really help bring momentum to a candidate if they win there.

Stick with us over the next few hours – we’ll bring you all the latest updates, context and trivia from our team on the ground in Iowa, and here in Washington DC.