ON MARCH 27TH Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, promised to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party—if Parliament passed her Brexit withdrawal deal. This has been rejected three times by the House of Commons. But MPs have been unable to agree on an alternative to Mrs May’s deal, beyond rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit. The prime minister has decided to seek a second extension to the talks with the European Union, and may yet make a fourth attempt to win parliamentary approval.
Whatever happens with Brexit, Mrs May has in effect fired the starting pistol in the race to succeed her as Tory leader and prime minister. Betfair Exchange, a betting website, has been tracking punters’ predictions on the next Tory leader. According to the wisdom of the crowd five Tory candidates stand out. On April 2nd, Boris Johnson, the former Foreign Secretary and prominent Brexit campaigner, became the narrow favourite to win.
The leading contenders
Probability of victory, April 2nd 2019
17% Boris Johnson, former Foreign Secretary
Profile, Sep 13th 2018
15% Michael Gove, Environment Secretary
Profile, Jan 24th 2019
13% Jeremy Hunt, Foreign Secretary
Profile, Apr 5th 2018
11% Dominic Raab, former Brexit Secretary
Profile, Jul 9th 2018
7% Sajid Javid, Home Secretary
Profile, May 3rd 2018
