VOTERS have a funny habit of wrecking pundits’ storylines. The election on September 9th in Sweden was supposed to be a rebuke of the country’s generous refugee policies during the migrant crisis of 2015, and yet another signal that European populism is on the rise. The anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats were to become the country’s biggest or second-biggest party. The governing Social Democrats would fall victim to the malaise that afflicts centre-left parties around the world. And the Moderates and their bloc of centre-right parties, the Alliance, were expected to win a solid enough plurality to unseat Prime Minister Stefan Lofven and form the next government.
Instead, the Social Democrats won, or at least did not lose. Polls had shown them with as little as 23% of the vote, but they ended up with 28.4%, just 2.8 percentage points less than four years earlier and still the largest party by far. The Moderates’ 19.8% was also better than most recent polls, but still 3.5 percentage points less than in 2014, not a resounding mandate for their leader, Ulf Kristersson. The Sweden Democrats went from 12.9% to 17.6%—a hefty increase, but not enough for them to become the second-largest party, as they had hoped. The result fell well short of predictions; some pollsters had put them in the low twenties, and one or two had even suggested that they would end up as the largest party. A high turnout, partly driven by fears of just such a breakthrough, may have helped hold their share down.
“It was a very good result, considering,” said Anders Ygeman, the Social Democrats’ parliamentary leader, as he left an election party where members had just given Mr Lofven ecstatic applause. Most important was the share of the combined left bloc, including the Green and Left parties. This “green-red” alignment got 40.7% of the vote, 0.4 percentage points more than the Alliance (which comprises the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Centre and Liberal parties). Ballots from Swedes living abroad will not be counted until September 13th, but at present the left bloc looks set to hold 144 seats in parliament to the Alliance’s 143, with the Sweden Democrats holding the remaining 62.
Mr Kristersson and the Alliance have vowed to vote Mr Lofven out after parliament reconvenes on September 24th. Together the Alliance and the Sweden Democrats hold a majority, so a vote of no-confidence is sure to succeed. The question, however, is who can form a government afterwards. All parties maintain a long-standing boycott of the Sweden Democrats, due to that party’s roots in racist ultra-nationalist movements in the 1980s. Without them, the Moderates will struggle to build a coalition, though there is some suggestion that they might rely on outside support from the Sweden Democrats for a minority government. The Social Democrats might well have an easier time. Many in the party hope to lure the Centre party and the Liberals away from the Alliance, while relying on the Left party to pass the budget.
Meanwhile, the Sweden Democrats have turned in a somewhat disappointing performance. The party’s leader, Jimmie Akesson (pictured), immediately declared his willingness to form a government with the Moderates. But while some in that party think it is time to include the populists in the country’s political framework, most Moderates would be deeply uncomfortable with such an arrangement, and the Centre and Liberal parties have adamantly rejected it. Mr Lofven could lose a no-confidence vote but then end up in power for a second term after all.
