“If you believe Liu is a real reformer, then the evidence suggests that Xi isn’t listening to him,” said another American, Matthew P. Goodman, an economist specializing in Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Instead, the stage is set for what one Chinese commentator calls a new bipolar world. Yan Xuetong, a professor at Tsinghua University, said in an essay in the coming issue of Foreign Affairs that Mr. Xi was already competing for new friends among America’s allies, and that there were few common threats that could force the countries to cooperate.
“The global fallout of Trumpism has already pushed some countries toward China in ways that would have seemed inconceivable a few years ago,” Mr. Yan wrote.
Though Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi come from very different systems, they bear similarities: both are strongmen, both are ardent nationalists, and both are taking their countries in different directions than their predecessors. With his tariffs, Mr. Trump has shown a willingness to upend decades of Republican Party allegiance to free trade.
Equally, both leaders are facing economic headwinds, which could be exacerbated by a prolonged trade war. Mr. Trump repeatedly asks his aides about the state of the economy, officials said, and some are warning him that he could be blamed for market turbulence and job losses from tariffs.
In China, where the economy is softening, Mr. Xi has faced grumbling among some liberals who have criticized him for the way he has handled the United States. Long Yongtu, a former vice commerce minister, said it was “unwise” for Mr. Xi to place retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans.
Mr. Trump has emerged from previous meetings with Mr. Xi, in Palm Beach, Fla., and Beijing, with fulsome praise for his “good friend.” Most people expect to hear those sentiments again — and they may even be tied to some kind of compromise on trade. The question is, will that be enough to patch up all the other conflicts?
“The president has quite artfully kept his friendship with Xi in public view,” said Orville H. Schell, the director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society. “But I doubt it will dissolve the myriad other forms of competitive, even adversarial, sentiment that have been arising in other sectors of the relationship.”
